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悅辯悅明 | 對話閻學通:不安的和平時代 中美兩極化的世界

2019年06月02日 閻學通 暫無評論

 

 

五月,美國以國家安全為由對華為實施交易禁令,意圖阻止中國主導全球通信技術領域。有分析指出,中美之間的貿易戰或升級為科技戰。對此,中國外交政策、國家安全和中美關系領域知名專家,清華大學國際關系研究院院長閻學通在接受CGTN主持人鄒悅專訪時表示,隨著中國逐步縮小與美國的實力差距,同時中美兩國同步拉大與全球其它國家的實力差距,未來的世界走向“中美兩極化”。這一時期的特征是缺乏國家擔任全球領導角色,國家間將出現更多沖突。然而積極一面是,盡管地區間沖突或增加,大國之間沒有爆發大規模正面戰爭的風險。本篇為專訪下集,上集請見:對話閻學通:美國的貿易戰邏輯 經濟利益至上

Editor's Note:?This article is based on CGTN anchor Zou Yue's interview with Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University. Yan is one of China's leading experts on China's foreign policy, national security, and U.S.-China relations. He has written several books, including Analysis of China's National Interests – winner of the 1998 China Book Prize; Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power; and Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers. The article reflects the expert's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

"We are coming into a bipolarized world. There could be no leader, at least for the upcoming 20 years," Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said on CGTN's Zoom In with Zou Yue.

"I regard China as a rising power and I believe it will become a superpower by 2023," he said. "In that process, China is reducing the capability gap with the United States. Meanwhile, the two countries are enlarging the capability gap with the rest of the world, that's why I call it bipolarization."

Yan argued Beijing will remain a junior superpower for the next 10 years.

"America definitely holds the upper hand. And China cannot improve its comprehensive capability to exactly the same level of the United States in at least the next decade. In 15 years, it is possible, but definitely not in 10 years," he stated.

As for how the U.S.-China bipolarization will impact the international community, Yan believed all the other countries will face the pressure of taking sides between Washington and Beijing.

"The issue of 5G is one example," said Yan, "the U.S. has been asking its allies to stand with it."

The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been touring America's allies since February in an attempt to discourage them from deploying equipment by Chinese telecoms company Huawei on their soil, cautioning them that it would complicate their partnership with Washington.

However, America's attempt to wall off Huawei has not gone as smoothly as the Trump administration had expected. Among its closest allies, only Australia has banned Huawei from its new networks. Countries like the UK and Germany believed any potential Huawei risks to 5G, if ever, are manageable and can be blunted.

Yan warned that there is a larger threat from bipolarization: a world in chaos!

The U.S. has been the sole world superpower after the end of the Cold War. Some experts argued its international authority has suffered a hit after it invaded Iraq without UN authorization in 2003. And it has been further weakened by Trump's "America First" policy, which focuses more on winning than on leading.

Over the past two years, Donald Trump has withdrawn from a number of international agreements and accords, from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Paris climate accord and Iran nuclear deal, to the UNESCO and the United Nations Human Rights Council, arguing they cost America too much but benefit it too little.

"Leadership means capability and resources. The U.S. feels it's too expensive to offer a global leadership. That's why the Trump government tried to shrug off this leadership for America's economic interests. Meanwhile, China does not have that kind of resources to support such a leadership," said Yan.

"There is no leader, there's no order," Yan noted, "and from my understanding, in the next 10 years, there will be fewer peaceful settlements, and more instances of violation of norms."

"However, the good news is there will be no world war among major powers. There will be no direct war between the U.S. and China, though there could be regional military conflicts, such as in the Middle East and Africa," Yan added.

As for how China can move from a superpower to one with a global leadership, Yan stressed the importance of being a humane authority.

"Authority means winning people's hearts and support based on trust," he said.

"And among the many things China can do, the most important thing is to keep good on its promises," Yan Xuetong offered his dose of advice, "This means to never promise anything beyond our capability. Then we can gradually build credibility."

悅辯悅明 | 對話閻學通:不安的和平時代 中美兩極化的世界

《Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers》由普林斯頓大學出版社出版,2019年4月初發行。

訪談實錄

Zou Yue: Your new book "Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers"? -- When you wrote this book, did you have the topic of China becoming a rising power, a superpower (in mind)?

鄒悅:您出版了新書《領導力與大國崛起》。在寫這本書的時候,您有沒有考慮過中國崛起或成為超級大國這方面的話題呢?

Yan Xuetong: I regard China as a rising power, and I predicted that China will be a superpower by 2023. Because on the one hand, China is reducing the capability gap with the United States. On the other hand, China and the U.S. simultaneously enlarge the capability gap with the rest of the world. So that's why I regard China as a rising power.

閻學通:我認為中國是一個崛起中的大國,我也預測過中國到2023年將成為超級大國。因為一方面,中國正在縮小與美國的實力差距。另一方面,兩國也正在同時拉大與世界其他國家的實力差距。這就是為什么我將中國視為一個崛起中的大國。

Zou Yue: But how about the relations between the two? Who will take a predominant role in the relations say in 10 years down the road??

鄒悅:但是中美兩國關系如何呢?在未來,比如說未來十年里,誰會在這一關系中占據主導地位呢?

Yan Xuetong: Ok, at this moment, America definitely holds the upper hand and China [is] in an unfavorable position. In 10 years, I think the situation cannot change. In 15 years, it is possible, but definitely not in 10 years.

閻學通:目前來看,美國肯定占了上風,而中國則處于不利地位。我認為10年內這種情況都不會改變。15年后有可能改變,但10年內絕不可能。

Zou Yue: So this is a transitional period. How will the change of power focus affect international relations?

鄒悅:所以現在是過渡時期。這種權力重心的變化將如何影響國際關系呢?

Yan Xuetong: All of the other countries will face pressure from the competition between China and the U.S. to take side. And like Pompeo traveled among America's allies to ask them to take side with the U.S. on the issue of the 5G, Canada and Australia took sides with the U.S. and Japan took side with the U.S. in December last year. But then they suddenly changed [their attitude] earlier this month. And the UK and the other European countries, from the very beginning, they took sides with China.

閻學通:所有其他國家都將面臨來自中美競爭的壓力,要求他們選邊站隊。比如蓬佩奧在訪問美國盟友時要求他們在5G問題上支持美國,因而加拿大和澳大利亞選擇站在美國一邊。去年12月,日本也選擇站在美國一邊。但本月早些時候,他們突然改變了態度。而英國和其他歐洲國家從一開始就站在中國一邊。

Zou Yue: If China wants to be a superpower and in a leadership position, how can China move in that direction?

鄒悅:如果中國想成為超級大國并取得領導權,中國該如何向著這個方向邁進呢?

Yan Xuetong: The most important thing is to keep good on its promises. That means to never promise anything beyond our capability. So reduce the promises and keep all promises implemented, and then we can create credibility gradually. The improvement of the strategic credibility will bring about leadership.

閻學通:最重要的是要信守諾言。這意味著永遠不要做出任何超出我們能力范圍的許諾。因此,不要輕易承諾,但一旦承諾,就要履行。這樣我們才能逐步建立信譽。提高戰略信譽度就會帶來領導力。

Zou Yue: What do you think will be the international order in the coming decade?

鄒悅:您認為未來十年的國際秩序會是怎樣的呢?

Yan Xuetong: From my understanding, in the next 10 years, there will be more conflicts among nations. There will be less peaceful settlements, and there will be more violations of norms. So I think in the next 10 years, the world order will be worse than the current situation for the last 10 years. But there's no danger of a grand war. There's no danger of a direct war among major powers. There's not only no danger of a direct war between China and the U.S., there is even no direct war between any major powers.

閻學通:在我看來,未來10年里,國家間將會有更多的沖突。和平解決問題的情況將會減少,而破壞規則的情況將會增多。所以我認為在未來的10年里,世界秩序將比過去10年的情況更為混亂。但是沒有爆發大規模戰爭的危險。大國之間也沒有正面戰爭的危險。不僅是中美之間,任何大國之間也沒有這種風險。

Zou Yue: So no world war. But what kind of conflicts? Brexit??

鄒悅:所以不會有世界大戰。但是會有什么樣的沖突呢?英國脫歐這種嗎?

Yan Xuetong: Yeah, not only Brexit, I think there will be more military conflicts among regional powers like in the Middle East, Africa.

閻學通:是的。不僅僅是英國退歐,我認為中東和非洲等地區的大國之間還會有更多的軍事沖突。

Zou Yue: Why?

鄒悅:為什么?

Yan Xuetong: There's no leadership, there's no order. Leadership is based on capability and material resources. And the U.S. feels it is too expensive to offer a global leadership. Meanwhile, China does not have that kind of resources to support a global leadership

閻學通:因為全球范圍內沒有處于領導地位的國家,就沒有秩序。領導力是建立在實力和物質資源的基礎上。美國覺得成為全球領導的代價太大。與此同時,中國缺乏足以支撐領導地位的資源。

Zou Yue: When can we see the end of the tunnel??

鄒悅:我們什么時候才能看到曙光呢?

Yan Xuetong: I'm very pessimistic. I don't think we will see the light of this tunnel within 20 years. Ten years…and there's a very slight hope to change the situation.

閻學通:我個人是十分悲觀的。我認為在未來二十年內都看不到曙光。十年內改變現狀的希望是十分渺茫的。

Zou Yue: What would your advice be to policymakers, not only now, but for future generations in the U.S. and China??

鄒悅:您對中美兩國現在以及未來的政策制定者有什么建議呢?

Yan Xuetong: I would suggest them to consider and focus on their strategy on material interests, rather than ideological interests and ignore the ideological conflicts or differences, embrace different values in different civilizations or cultures, and then create a kind of a new value.

閻學通:我建議他們考慮關注實際利益,而不是意識形態上的利益。要忽略意識形態上的沖突或差異,接納不同文明或文化中的不同價值觀,然后創造一種新的價值觀。

Zou Yue: On that cautiously optimistic note, we end our talk with Professor Yan Xuetong. Thank you so much

鄒悅:抱著謹慎樂觀的態度,我們與閻學通教授的談話就到這里。非常感謝您的到來。

Yan Xuetong: It's my pleasure. Thank you.

閻學通我榮幸之至。謝謝。

原文鏈接:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cVByIgk4QR0PA2XboKHrJQ



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